Emergency Rate Hike, Fed Balance Sheet

I'm posting this because it may be newsworthy.

ZH: Whispers Of An Emergency Fed Rate Hike As Soon As Tomorrow

Why is this notable? Because the February contract expires on Feb 28, more than two weeks before the March 16 FOMC decision. This means that someone is preparing for an intermeeting rate hike, some time before March. And plugging in the numbers, the 13bps in the Feb contract means that there is now a 30% chance of an emergency rate hike.

Impossible? Not according to Fed watcher and SGH Macro strategist Tim Duy who writes that he would "not be surprised by an intermeeting move either tomorrow Friday or by Monday. I know, this is crazy aggressive."

As of week prior, the Fed showed no sign of tapering. It does appear a taper could be underway now. In the week ended February 9, the Fed purchased less than $5 billion in treasuries and MBS. Assuming they don't go nuts and buy $40 billion in a subsequent week, it looks like a taper is happening.