Russia Uses USG Playbook, Recognizes Self-Determination of the Donbass

When all the brouhaha over Ukraine was started, my solution was simple: give the Russian speaking regions back to Russia. An alternative is independence for the region. The West has supported many breakaway regions and even gone to war defending these regions such as Kosovo. Russia took a page from the playbook by recognizing the Donbass republics.

Even before this announcement, the NQ was headed for a new low. Sanctions against Russia could spike energy prices, such that even a non-kinetic resolution to this situation will wreck the Nasdaq.

Bulls will be sucked into every dip thinking each event is some temporary negative incident, when the true driving force of the bear market is overvalued stocks priced for a perfect monetary and economic environment that is slowly becoming the perfectly bad monetary and economic environment for financial assets, let alone overvalued ones. Fundamentals aside, a psychological mood shift has begun. Ignore the news and watch the charts. If the lows go, it's panic time for the bulls. My current "hot take" is a tradable low arrives around the timing of a Fed rate hike in March, with 10 to 15 percent downside on the S&P 500 Index.

The Russell 2000 contract is farthest from its lows. It's the index that will confirm a breakdown. It closed on Monday 4.3 percent above its January 24 intraday low.