Turkey and the West Still Diverging

Way back in 2015 I posted Geopolitical Forecasting Through Technical Analysis: Is Turkey About to Destabilize the Middle East?. The main premise was simple: does a very alrge bearish pattern portend negative geopolitical events? I argued yes, and since then it's been filling in the dots.

ZH: Biden About To Declare US Recognition Of Armenian Genocide, Enraging Turkey

It's long been a Turkish 'red line' for which all the country's recent modern leaders have reacted fiercely at the mere suggestion, and which only thirty countries in the world officially acknowledge. It's being widely reported that President Joe Biden is preparing to declare the formal US recognition of the Armenian genocide, which was the mass systematic killing of over one million Armenians in Asia Minor from 1915-1917 at the end of the Ottoman Empire. Hundreds of thousands of Greek and Assyrian Christians were also slaughtered in the name of achieving 'Turkification'.

According to CNN on Thursday, "Two people familiar with the decision said the President was expected to make the declaration as part of an official statement on Remembrance Day, which falls on Saturday. Both said it was possible he would change his mind before then, and issue a statement merely recognizing the event without describing it as genocide."

Turkey is a great example of one of the main themes of this blog, that beng social mood and how negative mood exposes all the faultlines between peoples. The United States is entering a low level race war as diversity's problems are exposed. Turkey and the West have multiple fault lines ranging from religion to geopolitical goals. Kemalist Turkey made sense as a U.S. ally against the Soviet Union. Islamizing Turkey doesn't make much sense as an ally against radical Islamd, particularly when it ends up supporting ISIS. Of course, depending on who is in power in the U.S., supoprting ISIS might be seen as a good thing. President Trump seemed to flirt with the idea of siding with Russia and Assad against terrorists though, and without the false Russiagate narrative and the fake chemical attack blamed on Assad, it's possible Trump would have radically altered U.S. foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia and the Middle East at least on one problem. He would not have done too much given his support for Israel and the latter's support for radical Islamic groups that are "the enemy of my enemy."

Additionally, Turkey has also angered the U.S. by buying Russian weapons systems. It seems like no matter which way the West goes, Turkey finds itself in conflict. I still expect it will eventually be expelled or voluntarily leave Western organizations such as NATO. Economic troubles, including the fallout from rapid monetary expansion, has battered the currency. Turkey's revolving door of central bank chiefs whipsaws markets. Flight from the Turkish lira has led it to take action against Bitcoin. It doesn't say that is the reason, nor did China when it banned cyrptocurency exchanges amid downward pressure on the yuan and worries over capital flight.

As for the chart, the Turkey ETF emains in a downtend. When viewed in context with USDTRY, it takes on a bearish aura.