Market 2018-2020 Looking More like 1998-2000 Analog

I call this my "market top" chart. Admittedly I thought 2018 was the top because it bore a resemblence to the 2000 top. That did prove a very accurate trading signal though. By September 2018, I thought it looked like 1998.

Here is the updated chart:

A perfect replay would require stocks outperforming bonds a little more from here. A blow-off top with maybe one more dip in rates, a bear trap in the bond market. Or not, there's no reason why things couldn't top out at these levels. However long it takes though, I expect bonds will start outperfroming stocks on a relative basis.

More charts. I plot the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 versus the BofA high-yield credit spread.