2016 Will Be A Bad Year for Turkey

Back in August I wrote Geopolitical Forecasting Through Technical Analysis: Is Turkey About to Destabilize the Middle East?
All of which is to say, I can see the Turkey ETF (TUR) hitting single digits solely through currency depreciation and financial crisis. There's enough fuel there for it. However, geopolitical developments concern because they are likely to deteriorate along with the economy. If the chart is correct, economics and politics are going to get much worse for Turkey in the months ahead. Of course, the chart might reverse and the pattern may break, making a short of TUR a bad trade and a forecast of instability a wrong one. If it doesn't, Turkey may quickly become the new center of attention in the Middle East.
Last month Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet under dubious circumstances and the Russians haven't forgotten: Russian warship fires warning shots at Turkish fishing boat

A key juncture in the chart coming up. A break to new 6-year lows is possible.

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