Market Shocked: Govt Accepts RMB Depreciation; Chinese Bank Says 40% Depreciation May Be Needed

It seems the Chinese government tacitly accepts RMB depreciation reads the headline at iFeng: 央行似乎默许人民币贬值 降准概率上升. Not a lot new in the article, but the tone was surprising considering there have been plenty of depreciation calls in the past few weeks, let alone past few months. The article is in reaction to Tuesday's move. So far on Wednesday the market is calm.

The article says that the Chinese market is shocked by the governments lowering of the yuan fix:
Lowering the yuan central parity was shocking. This could be the beginning of devaluation.
One analyst said the yuan should be devalued 15% in a one-off move and if it doesn't work, do it again, and if necessary, one more time, which works out to nearly 40% devaluation:
Industrial Bank and Huafu Securities chief economist said the proposed rapid market-oriented exchange rate as soon as possible to fix the situation continued overvalued real effective exchange rate, an effective solution to problems of capital outflows.

We recommend renminbi competitive devaluations, because the crisis in the United States, the euro, the yen and emerging market currencies have depreciated, which is conducive to economic recovery as soon as possible; the actual economic impact of efficient extensive and complex not only boost exports so simple. RMB transition to a market-oriented recommendations in three steps, the first step devaluation of 15 percent, if not enough then 15 percent and then go on, it is not enough then do 15 percent again.
A report from Haitong says a Fed rate hike will limit the space for rate cuts, but the probability of another cut in the RRR has risen.
"The future of US interest rates cut space constraints of the country during the year and then the probability of a rate cut is not big, but with the increase in capital outflow pressure drop quasi probability rise again," Hai Tong Securities said in a report.

iFeng: 央行似乎默许人民币贬值 降准概率上升

No comments:

Post a Comment