CASS: Real Estate Depression Could Last Two More Years

Apparently there is almost no impact from contracting real estate investment or producer prices. CASS predicts both will fall again in 2016, but economic growth will barely be dented. Or CASS is predicting the rest of the economy will boom and make up the difference.

Earlier CASS was neutral to bearish on home prices. (See: CASS: Third and Fourth Tier Housing Inventory Still Grim, Prices May Tumble in 2H 2016; Or Not So all those Chinese economists saying real estate was a huge portion of GDP were wrong. The brakes can be slammed on the sector with barely any impact. Also, the officials running around proposing all manner of housing bailout policies are overreacting.

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences held "2016" Economic Blue Book "published and China economic situation report," China's economic growth is expected in 2016 at between 6.6 to 6.8 percent, the real estate downturn at least also need about two years time, investment will continue to fall.

According to the new media perspectives estate Blue Book Academy of Social Sciences of China's economic growth is expected in 2016 at between 6.6 to 6.8 percent, and is expected in 2016 consumer prices rose 2.1%, industrial producer prices fell 3.7 percent, excluding food and energy prices The core CPI rose 1.9%.

Academy of Social Sciences believes that China's economy continued downward pressure intensified in 2016 to increase efforts to implement the proactive fiscal policy is necessary. Also suggested that 2016 should continue to implement structural loose monetary policies to guide monetary credit and financing a reasonable social moderate growth acceleration.

A question to ask any economist putting out a China GDP forecast: what's the assumed renminbi exchange rate in your model?

iFeng: 社科院:房地产仍处调整期 低迷至少还要两年

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