CASS, Analysts Expect Extended Housing Downturn

The past two declines in real estate lasted 5 months. This one is expected to last longer.
According to the China Economic Net on June 12 disclosure, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Finance and Strategy, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences City and Competitiveness Research Center, "China Housing Development Report" project team released in May "Monthly Analysis of Housing Market Development Report" , With the tightening of funds, as well as local governments on housing investment needs, especially cross-regional housing investment in the joint control, most cities short-term gains will be suppressed, pre-housing prices rose too fast, the larger bubbles such as Beijing Short-term will continue to fall.

...Evergreen real estate Yang Hongxu that the past two rounds of short cycle of experience, the financial environment indicators are not bottomed out, the sales growth will not rebound, or will not be achieved by the negative positive. The past two rounds of sales growth continued for five quarters. This round is expected to last longer may be longer.

...The property market will be fully cooled

For the next property market trend, Centaline Property Chief Analyst Zhang Dawei is expected:

1. The cost of home buyers capital has continued to rise, has gradually completed from the amount to qualitative change process, the pressure of loans is growing. The current market turnover has been a comprehensive cooling, prices began to appear.

2. The prices are gradually adjusted. In this case, the bank's risk increases, the bank's awareness of the risk of collateral will increase, banks are expected to continue to tighten the amount of real estate and raise the price of real estate loans.

And in the past two years, most banks have absorbed too much real estate collateral. In this case, the mortgage has been tightened during the control cycle, loan discounts have been reduced, and lending time has been significantly extended. These are superimposed real estate control policies to play a regulatory effect.

3. Historically, the most stringent degree of Beijing credit is in 2011 and 2014 part of the time point, the first suite to restore the benchmark, the psychological impact on the buyers will be very large. The recent benchmarking will be the most stringent policy on the history of Beijing's mortgage loans. From the regulatory trend, the expected tightening trend of credit, the real estate cooling will continue.

Yang Hongxu that:

The first half of the current round of real estate regulation and control, from the key role is that some hot areas of the purchase, limit, limit loans, resale and other real estate policy. The next six months, the key factors, will be transformed into monetary credit and liquidity tightening, which belongs to the real estate industry's external environment.

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