PBoC Not Expected to Follow Fed Again

iFeng: 美联储加息时点临近 央行还会再次“跟加息”吗?
Since January this year, the central bank raised interest rates on the money market policy (reverse repurchase, MLF rate) twice as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. However, this practice on Friday the Fed will be the probability of raising interest rates in the context of being broken.

After the central bank on the RMB exchange rate central parity model to join the "counter-cyclical factors", but also by the June MPA assessment, tax and financial leverage and other factors caused by tight market liquidity. In this context, a number of analysts believe that the central bank raised the possibility of money market policy interest rates is very small.

...China's central bank will not raise interest rates (referring to the deposit and lending benchmark interest rate, OMO, SLF, MLF interest rate), even if the rate hike, the next time not added, the central bank will judge according to the economic situation itself The And pointed out that the central bank to raise interest rates is based on two conditions: 1, the exchange rate depreciation is expected to reduce; 2, capital outflow pressure slowed down. US Treasury bonds and China's national debt ten-year spread of 150BP or so (China's 10-year period of 3.6% -3.7%, the United States 10 years of 2.2%) and nearly three years to about 110BP, already have a relatively high premium, Slow down.

Lixian Securities chief macro analyst Li Qilin and the views of those who are basically the same, that China's central bank exchange rate pressure is not so big, coupled with the pressure of capital outflows slow (long short side spreads and the United States opened, while the stock price, assets Price bubble pressure becomes smaller, capital outflow pressure slowed down). And bold prediction, from the first indicators of US real estate mortgage loans can be seen year on year, the US economy is estimated to have a period of time to go down, the odds of the central bank moving with the Fed are almost zero.

Huachuang macro group Niu Bokun, Zhen Maosheng also believe that the recent strength of the renminbi to a certain extent, the release of the monetary policy of the somersault space, the central bank or no longer follow the Fed again raised the reverse repurchase and MLP interest rates.

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