China A-Shares Ready for a Rebound Says Bitcoin

Sohu: 【招商策略】极度悲观情绪的修复——A股投资策略周报(0708)
3. the exchange rate impact

Since the 811 exchange reform in 2015, the RMB has basically been “matched” with the US dollar index. Starting in mid-June 2018, the RMB suddenly started from 6.4 to July 4 when the US dollar index fluctuated and oscillated (around 94.5). On the 4th of the month, the lowest was 6.66, and the depreciation rate reached 4%. Under the background that the fundamentals did not change too much, the decoupling of the RMB and the “US dollar index” increased the market panic. From the perspective of the disk, during this time, The mainland stock market continued to flow out, and the SSE 50 index fell sharply.

Beginning on July 4, the renminbi began to pick up. It coincided with the US unemployment rate data fell short of expectations. The US dollar index began to retreat slightly. The renminbi index began to stabilize and rebound. The mainland stock exchanges returned to the positive inflow, and the SSE 50 index began to rebound.

Since 2017, the price of Bitcoin has been more consistent with the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index. The pace of decline in 2018 is strikingly consistent. The SSE 50 is about two weeks behind the bitcoin price. After the shareholding continued to buy the SSE 50 Index, the SSE 50 Index and Bitcoin have the same attributes, which are mirror assets of the US dollar index.

In the past two weeks, bitcoin prices have rebounded from a minimum of $5,816 on June 24 to $6,735, a rebound of 15.8%. If this law is still valid, then the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to usher in a rebound.

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