Reduction in Shantytown Renovation Lending Will Cool Market

iFeng: 棚改资金收紧 有助于抑制楼市“虚火”
Recently, the relevant departments have repeatedly released the signal to tighten the funds for shed reform, which means that the model of relying on shed reform funds to promote the property market in the past few years will end, and the real estate market will return to the track of rational development.

Recently, the property market across the country, especially in the third- and fourth-tier cities, has continued to be hot, which has aroused widespread concern in society. In order to curb the rapidly rising housing prices, the management department had to take multiple shots. In addition to the efforts of local governments to increase purchases, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also talked about 12 cities with rising house prices, and carried out special inspections and rectifications on behaviors leading to real estate chaos.

However, the most shocking news for the real estate market is that the shed reform funds may have to be tightened.

China's shantytown renovation project has been in existence for a long time. The early shed reforms were mainly based on physical resettlement, that is, the relocated households were compensated for the housing of the corresponding area. By 2015, due to the pressure of increased inventory in the real estate market, in order to promote the “destocking” process of the property market, the management department proposed a practice of shifting from physical resettlement to monetary compensation.

However, in the first- and second-tier cities, the shed-reform mode with physical resettlement and monetary compensation is still retained. However, in the third- and fourth-tier cities with high inventory pressure, the model of monetary compensation and physical resettlement is quickly occupied. Mainstream. It is worth noting that in the 2016 and 2017 government work reports, there is a clear formulation of “increasing the proportion of monetization resettlement”.

The census reform model based on monetary compensation was once regarded as a model of “financial innovation”. The specific method was that the central bank issued loans to CDB through low-interest PSL (mortgage supplementary loans), and CDB passed the special loan for shed reform to local government. Loans are issued, local governments provide compensation to residents of shantytowns through monetized resettlement, local governments repay the land bank loans after demolition and relocation, and CDB repays central bank loans, thus forming a closed loop of capital flow.

Driven by such policies, cities across the country, especially in the third and fourth tier cities, have quickly seen a boom in supply and demand. The reason for this is that a large amount of funds have entered the hands of developers and formed new supply capabilities. At the same time, however, the relocated households that received a large amount of cash have strong demand for housing purchases.

According to statistics, in 2016, the government plans to carry out 6 million sets of shanty towns, and actually completed 6.06 million sets; in 2017, 6 million sets were planned, and 6.09 million sets have actually been completed. The monetary compensation-based arbitrage reform model has increased the resettlement rate of sheds to monetization, from 10% in 2014 to 29.9% in 2015 and then to 48.5% in 2016. The data on monetized resettlement has used more than 430 billion in the first five months of this year, and this year's indicator is actually only 600-700 billion.

In this way, the property market, which was still in the process of “destocking”, suddenly became a market that was in short supply, and the property market price also rose sharply. Among them, the boost of the shed reform fund is "indispensable." According to relevant research, during the period from 2015 to 2017, the shed-to-money restocking area accounted for 11.9%, 15.9% and 21.2% of the commercial housing sales in that year. If the impact of sheds on monetization on commercial housing sales is removed, the growth rate of commercial housing sales will drop to -2.9%, 16.9% and 4.2%. Obviously, the tightening of funds for shed reform will help reduce the "virtual fire" of the property market.

Although the CDB denied the news that the shed reform fund was cut off, the management’s concern about the monetization mode of the shed has increased. The reference to “increasing the proportion of sheds to change the monetization” has also disappeared. This indicates that the model of relying on shed reform funds to promote the property market in the past few years will end, and the real estate market will return to the track of rational development.

Of course, the renovation of shanty towns is one of the important livelihood projects, and it is impossible to terminate them. Only in terms of fundraising and use, more exploration and innovation are needed. Only in this way can we achieve a healthy and stable development of the real estate market while ensuring the improvement of the quality of people's living.

No comments:

Post a Comment