2011-12-29

WSJ finally understands GOP primary and Ron Paul support

The Ron Paul Vote
The 2010 election was the result of a coalition that extends well past the formal tea parties. It combines Republicans of all stripes, libertarians, independents and worried centrist Democrats. They all are "fiscally conservative" and socially all over the map. The Republican nominee, however, will be produced by only one part of this fiscal-conservative coalition—the angriest, most politically committed Republicans and libertarians.
The Paul candidacy is of course doomed. But the Paul vote won't die. This vote has been building in the depths of the American political ocean since the spending spree of the second Bush term. These people see the upward spending trend in annual outlays and accumulated commitments not as a "problem," as the Beltway prefers, but as a threat to their well-being.
I don't agree with everything in this article, but it is the first I've seen in a mainstream publication that understands the situation. The attacks on Ron Paul are not going to work because his support isn't personal, it is political. His candidacy is one of ideas and knocking him out of the race doesn't ensure support from his voters. Most of his voters are absolutely up for grabs, from a candidate who speaks to the issues. The GOP's problem is that they don't have a candidate who can win these supporters. Michelle Bachmann's Iowa campaign manager has defected to Paul over the issues (not for money, as was claimed by Bachmann).

Ron Paul is benefiting from social mood and the search for a candidate who will change policy Washington, D.C. In some respects, D.C. has never left peak social mood, certainly by the standard of spending they have even reached new heights. The electorate started turning negative in 2000, but the 9/11 attacks and subsequent national security issues dominated politics and kept support for the establishment high. By 2006, conservatives were absolutely fed up with their own party and independents decided to give Democrats a shot. Democrats misinterpreted anti-Washington (seen as anti-Republican) sentiment as support. They spent up a storm with Bush the Younger, followed by a spending spree under Obama. Meanwhile, public opinion and social mood detached from DC and headed south. GOP front runners such as Romney and Gingrich, as well as Obama, simply do not understand the social mood or the current fiscal crisis. They all believe that the economy will recover, they still believe this is not a depression. The informed voters in the primaries sense that these candidates are out of touch with the mood of the country and the current economic reality.

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