2012-05-02

Racial polarization in America: political fault line becoming exposed?

Declining social mood puts Americans in a mood for conflict, but much of the racial conflict has stayed out of party politics in the sense that both parties claim to represent all Americans. There's a decades long debate between those who see America balkanizing along racial or ethnic and those who see it remaining relatively the same, but thus far there's been no change in American thinking, no evidence of balkanization. However, it does seem the election of Barack Obama has awakened a bit of "white consciousness" in America and this thinking will increasingly be backed up by demographic reality. To wit, whites are increasingly voting for the GOP and the result is White males fading among House Democrats.
A new analysis by the Cook Political Report reveals a further progression of white flight from the Democratic Party, which is increasingly represented by women and minorities, while the GOP remains a party dominated by white men.
I would argue that up to this point, the debate over racial politics in America has been theoretical because most white Americans don't pay attention. The question is what happens after a tipping point is reached and people realize there's a major demographic shift underway. Will white Americans stop thinking of both parties as "their party" as the Democrat party becomes less and less white? The Democrat party itself is built around racial and ethnic coalitions too, which may accelerate it's non-whiteness once the membership balance tips, since whites may need to form an ethnic bloc (such as the old Irish and Italian blocks) in order to win elections. To some extent this is already the case, but the point is that right now, white Democrats don't think that way.

In sum, the combination of declining social mood and shifting demographics will probably lead to a moment of recognition within the next decade in America. Then the debate will go from being theoretical to reality and we will see how politics evolves, if it continues along ideological lines or becomes more tribal.

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