Immigration restrictions coming in the United States

One often hears arguments about immigrants helping grow the U.S. population, offsetting the demographic shift that is making it hard for entitlement programs and welfare states to stay solvent. However, during peak social mood and even carrying into the present, there was no consideration for the abilities of the immigrants. The opposite was the case: there were almost no restrictions on immigration based on ability during peak social mood and anyone who raised the issue was called a racist or anti-immigrant. Now we have the results:

Slow path to progress for U.S. immigrants; 43% on welfare after 20 years
The study, which covers all immigrants, legal and illegal, and their U.S.-born children younger than 18, found that immigrants tend to make economic progress by most measures the longer they live in the U.S. but lag well behind native-born Americans on factors such as poverty, health insurance coverage and homeownership.

The study, based on 2010 and 2011 census data, found that 43 percent of immigrants who have been in the U.S. at least 20 years were using welfare benefits, a rate that is nearly twice as high as native-born Americans and nearly 50 percent higher than recent immigrants.

The report was released at a time when both major presidential candidates have backed policies that would make it easier to immigrate legally and would boost the numbers of people coming to the U.S.

...Federal law requires that the government deny immigrant visas to potential immigrants who are likely to be unable to support themselves and thereby become public charges.

...Expanding legal immigration is a contentious issue for voters, the vast majority of whom tell pollsters that they want the levels either retained or decreased.

But most politicians want legal immigration expanded.
Based on current law and these findings, the U.S. government could legally cut immigration by almost 50% immediately. The logic for such a restriction will become overwhelming as this type of data eventually leaks out, which shows immigration is actually making the U.S. fiscal situation worse.

Immigration restriction will be one of the key issues that delivers a true outsider politician into power. The only thing surprising about it will be how late it arrives and possibly how sharp a break with current policy it makes. Politicians continue to overwhelmingly hold the extreme "peak social mood" view, a position that was extreme in and of itself at peak social mood, but becomes insanely extreme politically as social mood declines. They are very far away from public opinion, leaving a gaping hole for the first ambitious politician who decides to make immigration restriction an issue.

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