2012-12-23

America is doomed; Neo-Hoover/FDR administration is about to crush the economy

China has only two years to rebalance before the U.S. consumer is removed from the global economy by a tax storm. China will be forced to rebalance away from the U.S. in two years if they don't take action now, as the entire global economy finally "decouples" from the United States.

Obamacare will blow a hole through the budget and cause a debt and currency crisis in the United States unless there are massive tax increases to close the hole. Currently, taxes must rise by 5% of GDP to close the budget deficit, but when Obamacare kicks in, it will add a couple more percentage points. The most likely tax is a VAT tax, which will also hit imports, and cause the price of retail products to rise substantially, killing off the consumer economy.

Any company, industry or nation relying on the U.S. consumer is headed for major trouble because this will hammer the economy worse than 2008. If taxes do not rise, the U.S. dollar is toilet paper. If global growth is strong, emerging markets will pick up U.S. slack, keeping commodity prices elevated. If the global economy weakens, commodities could take a bruising, especially since a China rebalancing means a drop in infrastructure investment, and therefore commodity demand will fall. Gold and possibly silver will be the exception as this crisis could metastasize into a major financial crisis, reminiscent of the United Kingdom in the 1970s.

Here's a conversation about the coming taxes, most likely a VAT tax by 2014. Financial Sense News Hour December 22, 2012.

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