Black Swan: Trump Wins Presidency, Blows up WTO; Bet on Trump Winning

So, if elected Trump, the global trading system is like "a bull into a china shop", many unpredictable risks will occur. For example, China will suffer more trade barriers, China's exchange rate policy will be more pressure. If the United States take the lead in closing doctrine, national foreign trade barriers will enhance the global economy will fall into a new round of recession.

Fortunately, Trump understand the basic principles of the economy, he said that like the low interest rates. In fact, if the United States withdraws WTO, aside TPP, re-signed NAFTA, the Fed will not be able to raise interest rates, but will restart QE job because a new round of US recession will officially open.

By then global markets swooning, the only benefit is gold.

Trump said that he likes gold.

He also said that if given the chance, he would make the current Fed Chairman Xi Yelun unemployment.

By that time, Trump will be a showdown with China? Maybe it will. But at that time a lot of America's enemies, in addition to the EU, as well as Canada, Mexico and Japan.

In short, Trump will be the election of 2016, the largest black swan. In his success, inspired by the British off Europe, the European extreme right will open a new round of revelry. Next, either the euro to disappear, either EU disintegration.

A new round of changes will occur in the world!

Another reported that a third of America's wealthiest are dumping stocks.
This is referring to this article at CNBC: Nervous millionaires may bail on stocks after election. The article doesn't say much though, because wealthy investors are split 50/50 on the election.
iFeng: 最大的黑天鹅来了?1/3美国富豪投资者或抛光股票

Hillary should get a convention bounce, but if I'm right about the social mood, I don't expect her to exceed the margin of error. People saying Trump is going to lose are living in an echo chamber; he is likely to win in a blowout landslide.

In addition to predicting the rise of Trump, I laid out exactly what 2016 might look like back in 2014: GOP Civil War Nearing Completion, But Democrat Civil War Just Beginning
Every single political analysis I've seen things the GOP will harm itself in 2016 with primary battles and that the Democrats will have smooth sailing with Hillary. That may end up being the case, depending on how things play out, the question is whether the GOP and the nation are ready for reform in 2016 or whether it will take until 2020. Should the GOP lose in 2016, by 2020 it would have changed greatly on the issues and will likely nominate (or the party that replaces it will nominate) an anti-interventionist, anti-free trade, anti-bank, anti-immigration candidate. Meanwhile, by then the Democrats may be having riots in the streets again.
Trump is that candidate, the only part of that plank he hasn't been campaigning on is anti-bank, though he says he wants Yellen to be unemployed. On the other side, Obama is leaving office with a wave of cop killing and racial violence. The GOP completed its civil war and is headed for battle relatively unified, but more importantly, with a candidate who fits the current mood of the country. The Democrats are falling apart due to the leaked emails which show the party was working against Bernie Sanders. To put it in market terms, the GOP let the market decide and the Democrats fought the market. Between now and November, the Democrats need a countertrend rally. The GOP only needs the dominant trends to continue.

As for the emails, the WaPo has fluff coverage: Here are the latest, most damaging things in the DNC’s leaked emails. The WaPo article mainly deals with infighting. If the Sanders voters stay home that is important, but the bigger news may be corruption: the sale of appointments to commissions and boards, which is right in the Trump campaign's wheelhouse. Leaked DNC Documents Show Plans To Reward Big Donors With Federal Appointments. If more stories like this leak, it may be enough to seal the election. That and I expect Patricia Smith be part of a "Swiftboat" advertising push come September.

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