Chinese Fertility Locked Into Collapse

Metro: China ‘to scrap two-child policy and put an end to family restrictions’

Trends always end, but China's collapsing fertility has too many factors working against it. Urbanization, high home prices, expensive family formation, feminism, emphasis on formal education, social pressure.

The most powerful antidotes in the short-term would be a housing price collapse, a real collapse that made large apartments with 3 bedrooms affordable, and celebrities and high level officials having three or more children.

Back in 2013 I wrote: China to Relax One-Child Policy, But Chinese Fertility Rate Still Headed Lower

Consider the bigger picture. China is urbanizing and one plan for keeping growth from collapsing to near 0-3% is to push more people into cities. The fertility rates in the cities is already low by choice. China increasingly looks like Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, where the fertility rates are 1.1, 1.1 and 0.8 children born/woman, respectively. China's fertility rate is currently about 1.6 children born/woman.

If they want to raise fertility, they should deurbanize. China's fertility rate is headed lower, one child policy or not.

This post from 2016 went into a lot more detail: China's 2-Child Policy Can't Stop Fertility Collapse