2019-03-06

Will Chinese Tax Cuts Work?

Probably not. On the surface they appear well targeted, but here's the key paragraph:
According to the report, the scale of tax reduction and reduction in the whole year of 2018 is about 1.3 trillion yuan. This year, the plan is to reduce the burden of corporate tax and social security contributions by nearly 2 trillion yuan.
21st Century Herald: 2万亿减税降费超预期:制造业、小微企业受惠

China and the world's problems are much bigger than regulation and taxation. It's debt and credit-backed currencies. A $300 billion tax cuts is substantial, but tax cuts were more effective in the 1980s and 1990s because most of the world was coming off low debt levels and experienced high and rising credit growth. Tax cuts were multiplied in a healthy growth cycle. Now the multiplier is below 1, the impact is blunted by high debt levels, falling credit growth, unfavorable demographics, unfunded liabilities......

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