Chinese Pork Industry Worse Off Than Understood

Successful Farming: WHY AFRICAN SWINE FEVER WILL HAVE A DEVASTATING IMPACT ON THE PORK INDUSTRY

SF: How long will these changes have an impact on the meat industry?

CM: China’s problem is not going away anytime soon. There is no easy way to control the disease and no way to prevent it. Operations that have been hit with ASF are unlikely to come back into production for several years. China will rebuild, it will want to produce its own pork. The government wants the country to be self-sufficient. The issue is how to repopulate the herd when the risk of reinfection is so high. There are already funds being raised to begin the work, but right now the risk is just too high.

China’s pork industry will look much different in the future. They want to build fully integrated facilities, where pigs are raised and killed at one location. That will take years. These new, larger farms just magnify the risk. Thousands of pigs at one location just concentrates the risk and magnifies the loss. I don't know if anyone has figured out the perfect solution.

SF: China says it will switch its consumers from pork to chicken.

CM: Consumers will eat more chicken (and duck, eggs, and beef) in the short run simply because pork will not be available. Some consumers have already moved to chicken out of fear of contracting ASF, despite the fact that there is no human health risk. This reflects the Chinese consumers’ lack of trust in the government after several food-related scandals.

Chinese chicken producers are already trying to increase production. The industry continues to struggle with outbreaks of avian influenza and poor genetics after restricting imports for many years. Chinese consumers still prefer to buy their chicken in the wet markets and eat a smaller, dark-feathered bird. Imported product is not well-suited to this market, aside from some foodservice and canteen business.

Article also discusses impact on foreign markets.