2020-08-16

Bull Narrative Has Wily Coyote Moment: Chinese M2 Fell in July

Chinese credit growth slowed in July, banks will crack down on individuals and companies using unapproved credit for housing and A-share speculation, and many real estate developers are hitting financial ratios that will restrict their borrowing. China's M2 money supply fell 0.44 percent in July, the largest drop since a 0.34 percent decrease in October 2019. By my count, it is the largest one-month drop since July 2014. Historically, July (and October) have seen declines in M2, July because it comes after the June credit surge when governments and SOEs borrow for their second-half investment plans. In a typical year then, a July dip wouldn't be remarkable. In the midst of global central bank easing however, it stands out because the three-month M2 growth rate has collapsed to pre-coronavirus levels. This doesn't mean accelerating inflation is over. It does mean that bulls assuming ceaseless central bank support lost the support of the world's second most important central bank in July. Whether it accelerates again or not is one of the most important questions for world markets going forward.

Total social financing slowed from its recent pace, but growth increased to 12.9 percent year-on-year from 12.8 percent a month earlier.


For investors focused on Chinese assets, regulators are also planning a crackdown on housing and stock speculation.

套取资金炒股炒房?别想!银行备下“大招”

Trying to extract credit card funds for stocks and house purchases? note! If you have these behaviors, part or all of your credit card functions will be terminated by the bank, including but not limited to adjusting the credit limit, locking the account, stopping payment in an emergency, and trading limits to merchants, etc.

Recently, many commercial bank credit card centers have issued announcements stating that they will further strengthen the use of credit cards, and clearly require that credit card overdrafts should be used in the consumer sector and not in non-consumer sectors such as production, operation and investment, including house purchase, securities investment, Financial management, other equity investments and other prohibited areas.

In addition to clarifying the above prohibited areas, the Ping An Bank Credit Card Center also stated that cardholders shall not use any illegal or false consumption such as cash-out, fraud, malicious swiping of orders to obtain bank credit funds, points, rights and interests, prizes or value-added services; cardholders shall not Use any fraudulent means or illegal tools to maliciously obtain rights or benefits.

"If cardholders use our bank's credit card to carry out transactions beyond the normal use of funds, it may cause the transaction to fail." The relevant person in charge of the Everbright Bank Credit Card Center said that control measures such as derating, stopping payment, freezing, and card locking will be taken , "In order to ensure the normal use of the card in the follow-up, the cardholder must properly keep the transaction vouchers that match the purpose of the credit card transaction in order to cooperate with the bank for verification."

What a contrast with the United States, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could care less if all the base money he creates flows directly into stocks.

楼市收紧:又一个坏消息!开发商的苦日子要来了?

The property market sends another tightening signal!

Not only banks have tightened mortgage-related mortgages, but real estate companies are also facing tightening of debt financing. This news has caused widespread concern in the financial and real estate circles.

It is reported that real estate bonds cannot be issued in full, and the inter-bank market will issue new bonds on a scale of 85% of the planned repayment.

Real estate financing is tightening again!

Developers panicked, "three red lines" prohibit real estate companies from increasing interest-bearing debt?

Many real estate developers have crossed three red lines. A list in Chinese can be found here: 三道红线

Worth clicking through for a chuckle at the credit ratings.

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