The market will begin to panic before Trump actually wins, which will be the signal that Trump is going to win (because the market reflects aggregate sentiment). As soon as the poll numbers cross and Trump moves into the lead nationally, the scare-mongering unleashed for Brexit will be ramped up to unbelievable levels. Ironically, this will ensure a Trump victory since a falling market will push more people to vote for change. The idea of a Trump win is already manifesting in peoples' minds and they are acting in ways to bring it about, even if they strongly oppose this outcome.
If you think that the British withdraw from the EU referendum decision for the financial market is huge, then once Trump finally elected, imagine possible financial market reaction. The market will panic, global asset prices will experience a re-pricing. Dollar bull market is expected to end, the euro will start to rise, China suffered the impact, thus affecting other emerging markets, the price of gold and other safe-haven assets will soar. The global market will undergo dramatic changes, also may be very bad change.iFeng: 一旦美国发生这件事情 中国将遭受巨大冲击
Over the past year, most investors think Trump eventually elected President of chance like Greece regained its AAA rating or Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the Crimea back to Ukraine. Every political analysts and investment banks have told their customers to ensure that, sooner or later will send the Republican freshmen Republicans regain control of the control, and choose a more mainstream candidates.
But all this did not happen. Trump beat out other competitors within the party. After that, people were told that Trump will be easy to beat Hillary. But until the present, Trump has been followed Clinton's footsteps.
Worse, the poll showed the gap between the two is narrowing. This week the UP the I / CVoter poll results show that Trump has overtake Hillary Clinton, the leading three points. With the recent health problems of the recent deterioration in Clinton, Trump possibility of the White House in November is becoming bigger and bigger.
However, the world was full of fear for Trump, because before there have been no candidates like Trump. Trump protectionism, isolationism and authoritarianism so that other countries around the world feel uneasy. Despite Trump's business to do well but his attack any others, so that most think he is not fit to be a political leader.
There is no doubt that Trump's Trump supporters believe other countries for assessment is unfair. As many supporters believe that the British withdraw from the EU, the world against the British withdraw from the EU is not fair, Trump's problem is the same. No matter how Americans look at Trump, but the fact is that no one outside the United States think Trump for President of the United States.
But this does not mean that Trump can not win the election. In the UK, bookmakers give Trump the White House out of the odds are two to one. This seems unlikely, but not inconceivable. If this happens, the global market will react? The following are the four trend may occur.
First, and most obvious, safe-haven assets will soar. Trump's economic policy is unlikely that there is continuity. The best one can expect is the case during his tenure Trump will launch a series of eye-catching policies. In the worst case, Trump may open a global trade war, which triggered the Great Depression of the 1930's. Global investors might flock to gold. In addition to price rose, all the safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc alternative demand for money or bitcoins, also will soar.
Second, the dollar will fall. Over the past year, the dollar has been steadily rising, the United States was the first hike of the world's major economies, reflecting the pace of recovery of the US economy better than most peers. Trump might think he would make a further strengthening of the US economy, but this will not be reflected in the dollar, at least not in the right direction. The dollar will collapse, because the US role in global affairs will decline.
Third, the euro will be strengthened. The euro area economy is currently very bad, Trump elected will only make the situation worse. If investors want to sell dollars, the total market is sufficient alternative euros. No matter what problems the euro zone economy, the euro will come on strong, so that the euro zone's manufacturing sector more difficult situation.
Finally, the Chinese economy has been hit. Trump promised during the campaign, China will launch a trade war. Chinese exports to the US reached $ 432 billion, accounting for a large part of its economy. China is difficult to find a business like the United States such a big export destination in a very short period of time. If Trump elected, China will have some factories will close, jobs will be reduced, which would impact on the Chinese economy, and then spread to other emerging markets. While emerging markets are the main engine of global economic growth, the global economy will soon be dragged down.
Today, the global market is still no sign of actual expected Trump was elected US president. The market is not a factor taken into account in the pricing factors. Only until only worry when things happen, it is human nature. With the polling day by day approaching, investors may increasingly concerned that this possibility.
Trump elected US president is unpredictable. But one can certainly predict that there will be some extreme market movements. If Trump's support rate has continued to rise, we need to pay close attention to market trends.