2016-09-23

Chinese Mortgage Debt Hitting US, Japan Peaks

For comparison, the USA up until 2007:
At growth rates of 25 to 30 percent, the ratio of disposable income to mortgages in China will hit the U.S. peak by 2019.
Overall household debt levels are relatively high:
Microeconomic survey data show that Chinese residents leverage ratio is not low. Chinese family financial investigation of Southwest University of Finance and Economics is more authoritative microscopic household surveys, according to its findings, in 2013 Chinese household debt / disposable income of about 170%, urban residents reached 190%, higher than the major developed countries according to OECD Household Survey. And since 2013, there's been rapid loan growth, the current leverage ratio should be significantly higher.
Mortgages are contributing more than 100% of GDP growth in 2016:
New loans to GDP ratio risk a major economic bubble. Japan even in the worst of the housing bubble in 1989, new residential mortgages accounted for no more than 3.0% of GDP, before the US financial crisis the new mortgage / GDP reached 8.0% at the peak in 2005. In 2015,r Chinese new purchase commercial loans + fund loans accounted for 4.9% of GDP, reached 7.7% in the first half of this year, not only greatly enhance, but also with the United States is very close to a record high, indicating that the real estate bubble risk in nearly right close.
WallSt.cn: 真的不低了!——再论中国居民房贷杠杆

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