2016-09-27

Rising Home Prices Will Stall RMB Internationalization

RMB internationalization will stall due to high prices and the risk of a collapse/outflows. Chinese goods are really expensive and Chinese buy many products from overseas because the RMB is way overvalued. It isn't expressed in an excessively high exchange rate, rather bank accounts are swollen with a sea of credit money coursing through the economy. When this tidal wave of currency can freely flow overseas, the yuan will depreciate out of necessity. The fleeing yuan to this point is the front running of a much larger trade. Right now, most Chinese don't have options and so the money pours into real estate, after being chased out of real estate once before, stocks, bonds and various collectibles.
China and the world money stock, real estate, most of the water to absorb the money, the flow of new loans are also here. Since the Chinese currency is substantially closed operation, the People's Bank currency issued in circulation are circled, China's current total of broad money M2 is added together the United States and Japan.

In terms of purchasing power parity, or other indicators, the RMB was significantly overvalued, overseas shopping has become routine. Once the internationalization of the RMB, the yuan can circulate freely, with the International Monetary confluence overvalued renminbi will depreciate. As the largest carrier yuan, real estate depreciation is a constant.
The end is already in sight because the State Council has planned for Shanghai to become an international financial center in 2020, which requires a convertible currency:
March 2009 decision of the State Council executive meeting, 2020 Shanghai will become an international financial center. For Shanghai to build an international financial center, the biggest problem is the internationalization of the RMB. At the latest by 2020, more than three years time, the internationalization of the RMB is bound to happen. Whether the price inflection point for housing is before the internationalization of the RMB, after, or simultaneously, is no longer important.
iFeng: 学者:人民币国际化 高房价拐点来了

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