2018 Pivot Year: Here Comes the Pivot

What sticks out is the H&S topping patterns in bonds and the inverse H&S patterns in commodity related funds. These go together if the reflation story develops into actual inflation. Bonds yields can fall alone and kill the inflation story, setting off another round of deflation (2011, 2014 redux). I don't see commodities rallying and bond yields staying low. Hence my preference for bond plays at this juncture.

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