2018-09-27

Big UST Sale Oct 1: Federal Reserve Reduced Balance Sheet by $15.2 B, No USTs

The Federal Reserve reduced its balance sheet by $15.2 billion last week, none of it was U.S. treasuries. While this lowers the monthly total from $34 billion to $19 billion, and $19 billion in USTs mature on September 30, the Fed is supposed to sell $24 billion:
On September 30, $19 billion in treasuries will mature, but the Fed is scheduled to reduce $24 billion this month and because of a slower pace in July and August, it actually should reduce by $27 billion. Either $5 to $7 billion in treasuries will be sold next week or there's going to be a monster reduction in the final week of September. All together, the Fed has $34 billion left this month.
Since only $19 billion will mature (rolling off on October 1), the Fed will start October $5 (and really $8 billion) behind schedule on UST roll offs.

The S&P 500 Index declined 2 points in the week ended Wednesday. If the pattern holds, the stock market will decline sometime this week and will likely finish down for the week. The Chinese yuan is still tracking lower with the Fed's balance sheet.

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