China Will Cut RRR and Interest Rates in April

iFeng: 央行最新定调！明确下阶段六大目标 降准降息何时再现？4月落地概率大

Clarify the next six goals of monetary policy in April or reproduce the cut in RRR and interest rates

As usual, this regular meeting also makes arrangements for the next step in monetary policy. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to track changes in the world economic and financial situation, strengthen research and analysis of the international economic situation, strengthen international macroeconomic policy coordination, and focus on doing their own business. Specifically propose the following goals:

1. Innovate and improve macro-control, and prudent monetary policy should pay more attention to flexibility and moderation, and place support for the real economy's recovery and development in a more prominent position. 2. Use a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and adequate liquidity and maintain overall price stability.

3. Effectively play the role of precision drip irrigation of structural monetary policy tools, make good use of the 300 billion yuan special reloan, the 500 billion yuan re-loan rediscount special line of credit, and the 350 billion yuan policy bank special credit line to guide financial institutions to increase their efforts Credit support for maintenance of supply, resumption of work, production, poverty alleviation, spring ploughing, animal husbandry, and foreign trade.

4. Deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, guide the sinking of service focus of large banks, promote small and medium-sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities, and improve the modern financial system with high adaptability, competitiveness, and inclusiveness.

5. Make great efforts to clear the transmission of monetary policy, continue to unleash the potential of reforms to reduce the real interest rate of loans, guide financial institutions to increase their support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, and private enterprises, and strive to achieve financial support for private enterprises. The contribution of private enterprises to economic and social development is adapted, and the supply system, the demand system, and the financial system are formed into a mutually supporting triangular framework, which promotes the overall virtuous circle of the national economy.

6. Further expand the high-level two-way opening of finance and improve the ability of economic and financial management and risk prevention and control under the conditions of opening up.

From the overall position of monetary policy, combined with the latest deployment of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the next step in monetary policy will continue the current tone and rhythm, and the central bank's attitude towards loosening monetary policy is still cautious and restrained.

Zhang Ming, director of the International Investment Office of the World Economic and Political Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the Chinese government should rely on large-scale fiscal easing policies to deal with the economic downturn and unemployment pressure. . In the next stage, China's monetary policy should be relaxed in a rhythmic and targeted manner in accordance with the needs of the development of the domestic economic situation. The current monetary policy in China should not be pushed too hard. The burden of hedging the epidemic, stabilizing the macro economy, and promoting the steady development of financial markets cannot be all placed on the People's Bank of China. For the negative effects of potential large-scale credit expansion, we should also pay attention to relevant historical lessons.

Many analysts believe that the central bank's marginal monetary policy environment will pinch the point at which the policy will land, and the next observation window for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts will be in April.