I Hope I Nailed It

Feb 29: Market Correction: Done or Ready to Run?
I've been heavily short in the market, but covered a lot of positions today and even took some long positions such as QQQ and short TLT. The VIX came close enough to tagging its downtrend. My speculative thought is the market will bottom when a large city such as New York City announces an outbreak and quarantine measures. However, that might not come for some time. I think today was probably an overreaction caused by not taking this virus serious. Plenty of people were shrugging it off on Monday even after outbreaks hit South Korea and Italy. I don't think we've reached full panic/capitulation by the "it's just the flu" people, but a news-driven correction needs news. On the other side, signals such as the VIX say a bounce is likely.
This was my buy signal and what I told offline folks to look for: a negative divergence between news and the market. It might already be happening as NYC announced a near full quarantine today. Stocks sold off, but crude has ripped again. Stocks haven't broken down. I fell extremely bullish, but not emotionally. If it sinks, I'll dump my positions and re-enter later. My guy sense of the market (informed by sentiment, charts, news, etc.) is that a tradable bear market relief rally has started.

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