2020 Sucked, 2021 Is Gonna Blow

Assuming the U.S. Dollar Index has entered a bear market, green regulations spread and deepen, governments increase stimulus and an full exit from the pandemic occurs, 2021 could be the year inflation returns. It will hit precious metals and industrial commodities first.

The U.S. Dollar Index has likely entered a bear market. The prior two bear markets saw 7 to 8 near-consecutive quarterly declines (the rebounds were small bumps on the road lower). A reversal to 96 is a correction, above and we're probably discussing widespread financial panic. The last stop for a rebound is the 88.50 area. If a bear market, the DXY should be sub-80 by year-end. Fundamentally, all the conditions for a relative dollar rally against foreign fiat are still in place, but it's a question of whether those fundamentals have been overwhelmed by animal spirits. Coming into 2021, the indication is yes.

The major indexes enter the year with a potential bearish setup. One must consider them through the lens of technology-sector distortion. Tne Nasdaq 100 has no upside resistance haven broken free. The DJOA and R2K both look like they're running into resistance, as would be the S&P 500 if it didn't have such a large technology weight.

The precious metals all have bullish setups except for palladium. It looks like it could be headed for another test of the top, but even if not, returns will likely be higher in other metals.

If a bullish resolution in 2021, copper should exceed $4 by year-end, and possibly as soon as May or June. It has a long way to go before hitting support at $3.00, a move below $2.90 would raise the threat of this year being a false breakout.

If gold will run, BTC Bitcoin looks like it will extend its run versus gold.

Silver junior miners could be the first movers if 2021 is gonna blow.