Yuan Deval Again? Evergrande Back in Focus

The yuan devluation scenario has never gone away as long as the dollar remains richly valued, China relies on foreign reserves to back its currency, outflow pressure keeps reserves from rising, and China's monster credit bubble grows with repeated use of forced production, such as making steel, for short-term GDP boosts.

Bloomberg: Evergrande Bonds Pledged at 53% Discount in China Funding Market

China Evergrande Group bonds are suffering steep haircuts in a key onshore funding market, showing just how risky the bonds are perceived to be by mainland dealers.

Holders of Evergrande’s 2023 yuan bond are being forced to accept a 53% discount to pledge the note as collateral in the repo market, according to China Securities Depository and Clearing Corp. data, versus 28% in April. A markdown of around 57% of the bond’s face value was seen in the wake of the developer’s previous liquidity crisis in October, the data showed.

The larger haircuts come as the property giant struggles to convince investors it can generate enough cash to pay down debt. While Evergrande -- the world’s most indebted developer -- is rated the equivalent of investment-grade by China’s largest credit risk assessor, several of its onshore notes have slumped to record lows this week as concern over its financial health worsened.

U.S. stocks suffered a quick 10 percent haircut on the yuan devaluation in 2015. They would rebound, but then sink to a low in early 2016 led by energy and commodities. Back then, there was cooperation by central banks. Would there be cooperation this time around?

I seldom time these things because it's impossible to know early on. More signs will emerge if something is creaking under the hood. I will look for specific stock and forex trades if this develops. Casions with China exposure were crushed last time.