2021-11-30

Inflation is Bad For Stocks

I have been waiting for this moment for most of this year. The market has finally realized higher inflation equals higher interest rates equals the Federal Reserve taking support away from stocks.
What I expect now is one of two scenarios. First is more of the same: a panic and the Fed backs off in a few days or weeks, depending on how fast it happens. Rates go down, inflation dips. A secular shift in inflation happens further out in time. Or the bull market is over. Inflation will remain elevated, the 40-year bond bull maket is over, the commodities bull market is getting started and so on.

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