I'm Shorting the Gap

That's quite the gap that's opened up between XLE and CL. There's a roughly 20 percent peformance gap open. It can go wider, 30 percent wouldn't be impossible, but this type of directional gap where one rises and the other falls is rare. This isn't necessarily going to close then, but the inverse correlation should end. Since XLE looks like a double-top here, I see XLE as offering similar downside potential as CL or USO, but without outperformance potential (for short positions) should the gap close.

Here's how performance went in 2014 and 2018. The latter looks more relevant to me given rising rates and falling stocks as part of the backdrop.