Chinese Real Estate Bulls and Bears

A summary of some bull and bear opinion in China. A good cross section. It closes by saying there are still way more bulls than bears in Chinese real estate.

iFeng: 关于房价官员学者开发商怎么说 预测两级分化

● unsustainable real estate boom, but the Great Depression may not be coming soon, as long as the monetary policy remains loose, the downturn in the real economy will not be absorbed, capital flows into real estate and the stock market and other virtual market, cannot be stopped. Government can certainly squeeze the real estate market, but that means that the outbreak of the debt crisis, the pros and cons, it is easy to measure.

- Financial commentator Ye Tan published "Give me a break, far from the arrival of winter real estate" on October 24 in her blog.

● It is important that future investment is urbanization. Population movements driven by what? Driven by wealth and money. This year, the highest growth rate of housing prices in Shenzhen, Shenzhen why the short term prices will rise rapidly as more Internet-related jobs this year in Shenzhen ninety percent population growth rate almost doubled, young, educated, creative and capable people We are gathered to Shenzhen.

- Ren Zhiqiang explained his views on the property on October 22, "the positive and the island."

● This year, the first-tier cities in general has entered a process of warming, housing prices in Shenzhen also appeared periodically, gaining momentum move up north, on the broad property market heating process is relatively mild, but Beijing has repeatedly occur from the beginning of the year Xindi king. Look at the policy level, policy optimization and adjustment, track overall framework continue to improve, this is a very good new mechanism, in general, the probability of severe difficulties occur developers is getting low.

- Former director of the Institute of Fiscal Science, economists Jia Kang said in a famous speech in August.

● With the voice of public opinion, our national real estate bubble may soon shattered ...... I say that our country has not seen such a phenomenon. You have to consider the 15 million Chinese migrants to cities each year, enough to cover the house, plus the original update, the year add up to two billion square meters of urban and rural house is built out, the world was built four billion square meters, a US construction crane suppliers say that the world needs 40,000 units a year worldwide, 20,000 units sold to China went. On this issue, our real estate proportion in the national economy is surprisingly high, we are only 20% of the investment contribution.

--10 17, Tsinghua University, China and the World Economic Forum on the State Department counselor, Urban Planning Society of China chairman Qiu said.

● our local governments in the implementation of the land market is the "bilateral monopoly" approach: land monopoly buyer in order to drive down the purchase price; monopoly seller of land is to enhance the selling price. Forming an intermediate form of the difference of local government revenue. This model plus a variety of taxes, resulting in house prices in local government revenues accounted for half or more.

As long as the sale of land "bilateral monopoly" model of change, as long as the tax structure between central and local governments do not adjust, then we do not go to complain about "price is too high" would "undermine city competitiveness" pseudo-problem like this. Dance in shackles Shenzhen government has jumped the most beautiful, and you can expect them to trouble Which will lead to?

- September this year, director of Shenzhen Real Estate Research Center, the State Council special allowance Wang Feng "on the city's high prices and personnel housing problem consideration," said.

Xi wind Reviews

Bullish camp, although there are "limited Bullish" and the extent of "willful see more" different, but they look much summed up in three reasons: First, China is in the process of urbanization, the city each year 15 million people in need of housing, there is a huge market demand; Second Local Government "bilateral monopoly" plus a variety of tax is the main reason for rising house prices, as long as such models and tax structure does not change, prices will rise; Third, the real estate in fact kidnapped economy, particularly in the crucial moment of China's economic hard landing or a soft landing in the real estate decline will mean the economic crisis, the government in fact had no other choice. Of course, there is a "reason" is that the Chinese economic growth target as a prerequisite for anti-push, such as Dong Zhiyong.

● Although since 2014 the government introduced a series of powerful save real estate policies, but these policies only encourage investors to hold more housing and enter the housing market, did not cause consumer demand for housing to rise. In this case, the Chinese real estate market is simply not sustainable. Reversal Shenzhen real estate market it was clear that this also means that the future of China's real estate market will become more difficult.

- Researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Finance Yixianrong October 23 issued a "Shenzhen property market reversal means that the future real estate market is more difficult," on his blog.

● I always thought that the real estate market does not rectify, China sooner or later a major event, the last two years I added that the whole ruthless, and immediately the accident. Now it's a hot potato. I worked in an internal report in June this year, said: "The current economic trend key showings City, the housing market has become an inevitable decline stereotype." Here that the housing market means that house prices and trading volume.

- October 21, the honorary Director-General of the Research Institute for Finance of DRC, research fellow and Counselor of the State Counci, Xia Bin said.

● central bank to adjust the ratio of house prices down payment, intended to "silver October" to stimulate home sales, although short-term disturbances can play a role, but under the influence of monetary cycles, economic cycles and population cycles, still can not change the trend of the property market in the long-term adjustment. If you want to buy a house, please think twice.

--10 20 March, China Business Times, deputy editor of the country by the Nankai University, Professor Liu Shan says.

● The house was built more than enough, the fundamentals of the real estate industry has been reluctant to support prices rose. So young people not to buy a house, now is a shared economy, rent is part of the shared economy.

- In July this year, Pan Shiyi said.

Xi wind Reviews

Compared to people bullish, bearish man much less, which is the entire real estate market bullish bearish similar proportion. Officials experts and real estate developers are not the same reason bearish, but also summed up in three points: First, on the whole, the house is too large Chinese stocks have been unable to support the real estate rise; the second is, whether it is from natural law or social law, there is no house prices can only rise, not to mention real estate has soared nearly 30 years; the third is the people's purchasing power has been unable to support housing prices at a high level, which is the real estate industry boom degree of reasons for the decline; Fourth It is the new norm does not support the real estate economy continued to rise.

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