Shao Yu: China Needs To Launch Macro Controls, Move Heaven And Earth to Clean Balance Sheets

Main points:

1, now finance economic environment is the most difficult period in history, many indicators have hit a new low for the past decade. Now the economy is more like five or six o'clock in the evening, that there is little temperature. When will China's economy up, you have to look at the second tier cities of the property market when it can digest inventory to 80%.

2, the Chinese economy is facing a double fault: China's huge money supply began to change; GDP and reform Championship tournament.

3, China's reform, some fast, some slow, the fastest is the financial system, we do not want to slow down fast reforms, but to slow reforms face up.

4, the next five years, China will face the challenge of the middle-income trap, we succeed, we must in Europe and America, Latin America is the difference if we did.

5, we have to reconsider the economic macro-control, you must adjust the macro-balance sheet, in moderate deleveraging while, do a lever Qian Kun Da Nuo, the high balance sheet to do a complete emptying.
The economy is taking a bigger hit than in 1997:
First, back to the present financial and economic environment, we feel that now is experiencing the most difficult period in history, many indicators we have seen, have hit a new low for the past decade, our latest a GDP only 6.7 or so, CPI and PPI recent data is very weak, a lot of people to explore, that we now have what the economic cycle fell during the so-called differences with 1997-2002 year cycle, is not re-staged in 1997, I think, and in 1997 compared to now is the most difficult period of reform and opening up, if we put 1997 2002 cycle, when the economy was very weak, but also said that after the so-called Asia-Pacific financial crisis, when the financial weak can play an example, which is eight or nine in the morning sun, does not have too high a temperature, but in rising, and now the economy is more like five or six o'clock in the evening, that there is little temperature, we are very pleased to discuss this issue, it looks very prosperous cities, but it is more It is about to enter a night at dusk. Compared to that time, our domestic and external demand has been hit hard, the 1997 financial crisis, the main attack of Southeast Asia's FDI, and not subject to any substantial damage. After the 2008 financial crisis, the global economic growth in the permanent loss of 1.5 percentage points, that is, before the crisis was about 5%, now only about 3%, from the end of this globalization.
He doesn't see a recovery until real estate inventory is digested in the smaller cities, which may take up to 2 years:
We look at domestic demand, if not mistaken there in 1998 the first single mortgage, at that time the real estate as a pillar industry of the country, we see the whole estate was this excess, the study found the total housing now provided enough 3.4 billion people live, is actually very simple, if you ask me to see China's economic cycle when up, probably have to wait until the second tier cities to 80 percent of inventory digestion time, this requires at least two years. If you are not sure about this situation, we seem to have no sense of direction for a lot of things, why is there such a huge change, the main driving force of our growth, globalization also expect major reforms.
He sees the need to wipe balance sheets clean:
Finally, the macro-control, the macro adjustment is really complex problem. We all use some of the old words, such as drainage, stimulation, these words comparison table our appetite. There is a week before the news, to allow the expansion of credit mortgage refinancing is used, not like this, because I mentioned in the last two inside, including the loss of nearly 200 billion dollars in reserves, we have adopted an additional supply of base money and continue drop quasi make M2 reach 12%, 13%, so that means we have to rethink elements of economic macro-control, we find the current macro-control is not a simple flow considerations, because he has no flexibility in addition to the bad news, in fact, based on our The study found that we Chinese macro balance sheet which appeared civil agencies, governments, the banking system of bad debts, we have to do this adjustment, we also have to move heaven and Earth to deleverage, the high balance sheet do a complete emptying. And we through PPP, as well as through the RMB internationalization, why want to leverage a variety of ways maneuvers. We hope that in the future growth process, able to grasp such a delicate balance. The only thing we expect is "Thirteen Five" is coming, release into the population and overall second child and innovation, as well as the new Troika to bring us more than the dividend policy, we still have to focus on the situation of globalization We do change our investment. The investment is two words, the first pig will fly when the wind up, and the second time when liquidity do not stop swimming naked.
iFeng: 中国需重新考虑宏观调控 做一次杠杆乾坤大挪移

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