Real Estate Investment Contracts For Second Straight Month; Did Rest of Chinese Economy Grow 8% in Q3?

Update: To put this real estate growth figure into context: real estate investment alone, not including any secondary or tertiary impact, is 14% of GDP this year through September. In Q3, real estate investment fell 0.6%. In order to reach 6.9% GDP growth in the quarter, the rest of the economy needed to grow at about 8%. In order to generate 6.9% GDP growth in September alone, the rest of the economy would need to grow at 8.4%. The IMF takes a sanguine view in this April 2015 working paper: Understanding Residential Real Estate in China. They assume there is other investment making up for the shortfall, but the September fixed asset number slumped too. What saw big growth in Q3 to keep GDP level?

Real estate investment fell to minus 3.1% growth in September, down from minus 1.1% in August.

Sales continue to pick-up, but policy effects may be fading with the rate of growth plateauing.

Real Estate Investment Growth Rate
Land purchases by developers (area)
New Home Sales By Area (yellow) and Yuan (blue)
Developer Capital

Source: 2015年1-9月份全国房地产开发投资和销售情况

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