Looking at the latest results compared to statewide polling, utilizing the same methodology, it appears all of the normally predictive counties remain consistent with statewide results with the exception ofAssuming Trump gets a few breaks that go with the swing polling, this is the dead heat possibility, where a single congressional district in Maine could swing it to Clinton victory or a 269-269 dead heat. It requires he flip Pennsylvania though.
Luzerne County, PA. Trump greatly outperforms his statewide performance in this particular county. This is where you can see local issues, such as Luzerne’s struggling economy, break the county from their predictive nature.
All other counties show three points or less difference from the statewide polling.
As of this moment we find a presidential campaign where Hillary Clinton has the clear advantage over Donald Trump, but we do not find a presidential campaign that is out of reach for Trump. The odds are stacked against Trump, as our data and data from most reliable sources shows, but he has slim leads or is within the margin of error in his must-win states. Trump would need to overcome a deficit in Colorado, break through a current tie in Florida and maintain small leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio to have a chance to accumulate 270 electoral votes. Virginia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania appear to be out of his reach as he is at least three points behind in each of those states in the closing weeks of the campaign. A pathway has been charted, but data also shows that Trump could also be the victim of a clean sweep in these states.
The decision by establishment Republicans to distance themselves from Trump likely lost not only the Senate, but the GOP as well because Trump voters are aiming to boot these members out of Congress by withholding votes.