Twilight of the Neoliberals

ZH: Germans Are Leaving Germany 'In Droves'
More than 1.5 million Germans, many of them highly educated, left Germany during the past decade. — Die Welt.

Germany is facing a spike in migrant crime, including an epidemic of rapes and sexual assaults. Mass migration is also accelerating the Islamization of Germany. Many Germans appear to be losing hope about the future direction of their country.

"We refugees... do not want to live in the same country with you. You can, and I think you should, leave Germany. And please take Saxony and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with you.... Why do you not go to another country? We are sick of you!" — Aras Bacho an 18-year-old Syrian migrant, in Der Freitag, October 2016.

A real estate agent in a town near Lake Balaton, a popular tourist destination in western Hungary, said that 80% of the Germans relocating there cite the migration crisis as the main reason for their desire to leave Germany.

"I believe that Islam does not belong to Germany. I regard it as a foreign entity which has brought the West more problems than benefits. In my opinion, many followers of this religion are rude, demanding and despise Germany." — A German citizen who emigrated from Germany, in an "Open Letter to the German Government."

"I believe that immigration is producing major and irreversible changes in German society. I am angry that this is happening without the direct approval of German citizens. ... I believe that it is a shame that in Germany Jews must again be afraid to be Jews." — A German citizen who emigrated from Germany, in an "Open Letter to the German Government."

"My husband sometimes says he has the feeling that we are now the largest minority with no lobby. For each group there is an institution, a location, a public interest, but for us, a heterosexual married couple with two children, not unemployed, neither handicapped nor Islamic, for people like us there is no longer any interest." — "Anna," in a letter to the Mayor of Munich about her decision to move her family out of the city because migrants were making her life there impossible.
It is amazing how quickly Germany changed, like flipping a switch. Merkel's migrant policy was never going to be positive for Germany, but if it ends up pushing out more native Germans in the process it will rapidly accelerate the collapse of the welfare state. Furthermore, it has rapidly shifted social mood, from one of acceptance of migrants to Germans now believing their own government is their enemy.

It is hard to over emphasize how destructive Merkel has been for Europe. Germany was likely to be the least radical power during the shift towards authoritarian, anti-immigration government in Europe. Now, Germany appears as if it might shift further right than National Front in France. Meanwhile in France, FN is riding the same wave as Mr. Trump in the United States.

FT: How France’s National Front is winning working-class voters
After deindustrialisation came the FN’s victory in 2014, when Hayange became one of 11 towns captured by the far-right party, prefiguring the populist wave that has shaken the continent, notably with Britain’s June vote to leave the EU.

Today Hayange, which in its heyday lured in immigrants from Italy and elsewhere, has become staunchly Eurosceptic.

The FN has built much of its success over the past two years on an effort to gain the support of working class voters. Whether Ms Le Pen can defy the pollsters who predict she will ultimately lose the presidential contest, or at least do better than expected, will largely depend on whether she can mobilise disenchanted blue-collar voters, whose turnout has tended to be low.

“The FN has become the party of the working class,” says Bruno Cautrès, a political sciences researcher at Paris-based Sciences Po Cevipof. “The party offers a double explanation for their malaise: Europe has failed to protect their jobs from globalisation and failed to protect their way of life from Muslim immigrants.”
Bloomberg: Nationalists and Populists Poised to Dominate European Balloting
In the coming 12 months, four of Europe’s five largest economies have votes that will almost certainly mean serious gains for right-wing populists and nationalists. Once seen as fringe groups, France’s National Front, Italy’s Five Star Movement, and the Freedom Party in the Netherlands have attracted legions of followers by tapping discontent over immigration, terrorism, and feeble economic performance. “The Netherlands should again become a country of and for the Dutch people,” says Evert Davelaar, a Freedom Party backer who says immigrants don’t share “Western and Christian values.”

Even Europe’s most powerful politician, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is under assault. The anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has drained support from Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrats in recent state and local elections, capitalizing on discontent over Germany’s refugee crisis. In Austria the far-right Freedom Party has a shot at winning the presidency in balloting set for Dec. 4, after an election in May that the Freedom Party narrowly lost was annulled because of irregularities in vote counting. The populists are deeply skeptical of European integration, and those in France and the Netherlands want to follow Britain’s lead and quit the European Union. “Political risk in Europe is now far more significant than in the United States,” says Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of macro research at Barclays.
Nick Rowe sums up the inherent problem for the neoliberal order in the West. As their economic models ignore debt and thus lead to massive debt crises, the neoliberals also believe in the Blank Slate and treat people as widgets, assuming no change in social, cultural and political institutions from mass migration. As with debt, it leads to a total system collapse.

Importing people is not like importing apples

Worthwhile Canadian Initiative:
Importing people is not like importing apples.

It's not just "labour services" and "consumer demand" that crosses the border; it's people. And there's a lot more to people than just bundles of labour services and consumer demands, where tariffs and transport costs make the only difference to whether they are inside or outside the borders.

"Total Factor Productivity" is not some geological feature like the Canadian shield. There has to be a reason why some countries are rich and other countries are basket cases, and unless you are lucky enough to find yourselves sitting on great reservoirs of oil that someone else will pay you to pump out of the ground, that reason seems to have something to do with social/economic institutions, and social/economic institutions seem to have something to do with people.

If you have a model which treats Total Factor Productivity as exogenous, then yes, if "resources" flow from places with low TFP to places with high TFP, as they will if the invisible hand is allowed to operate, that would be a Good Thing. But you need to stop and ask: "Hang on. I wonder why TFP is higher in some places than in others?" Which should lead you to the next question: "I wonder if TFP really would be exogenous to the sort of policy experiment I'm using my model for?". Which should lead you to the next question: "I wonder if social/economic institutions really would be exogenous to the sort of policy experiment I'm using my model for?"

How exactly will social/economic institutions change when we import people? God only knows. They might change for the better; they might change for the worse. It depends on them; it depends on us. But they almost certainly will change. And if you can't even see that question, and wonder about it, then you really are missing something that even the great unwashed uneducated rabble can see. And the great unwashed uneducated rabble are going to put even less credence on what you intellectual elites are telling them they ought to think.
There will be no moderation. The behavior of the establishment across the West shows it will only increase current policies to punish the unruly electorates, and the electorate will respond by picking ever more radical candidates. The West is about to descend into civil conflict once more.

No comments:

Post a Comment