Chart Says Turkey Still Doomed

Kemalist Turkey was an ally of Europe and NATO, enemy of Russia. Islamic Turkey was an enemy of Russia and Europe. As Turkey becomes more Islamic, it is increasingly at odds with Russia and Europe. The latest battle comes after several European governments refused to allow Turkish government officials in the country because they were planning campaign rallies for an election in Turkey.

AFP: Turkey threatens to send Europe '15,000 refugees a month'
Ankara and Brussels almost a year ago on March 18 signed a landmark deal that has substantially lessened the flow of migrants from Turkey to Europe.

But the accord is now hanging in the balance due to the diplomatic crisis over the blocking of Turkish ministers from holding rallies in Europe.

"If you want, we could open the way for 15,000 refugees that we don't send each month and blow the mind" of Europe, Soylu said in a speech late Thursday, quoted by the Anadolu news agency.
As nationalism rises in Europe, this type of argument feeds into their strength. This makes Erdogan's threat a powerful double-edged sword. If he lets in more migrants, the pro-migrant politicians in Europe will be under greater pressure, but if he lets too many migrants into Europe, the nationalists might win.

LSE: Why the fear of Islamization is driving populist right support, and what to do about it

It sounds crazy, but it still appears as if the Turkey ETF (TUR) is headed into the single-digits. If there was a long-term betting market on Turkey leaving NATO, it would be worth a bet because the odds would not reflect the actual risk.

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