Bet on Le Pen?

ZH: If Recent Trends Are Any Indication, Marine Le Pen Is Being Drastically Underpriced By Oddsmakers

There some sign of weak support for Macron. Guardian: Majority of Mélenchon supporters will not back Emmanuel Macron, poll finds

The polls show Macron up 60-40 on Le Pen. For comparison, the largest lead for Leave or Remain was 4 percent in the last month. The final average poll in the U.S. Presidential Election had Clinton up by 2 percent, but a few weeks earlier Trump odds were below 10 cents following the release of tapes with him making crude sexual remarks. Even at the end, he was below 30 cents.
In conclusion, on-the-ground pollsters in the UK and the US didn't do a terrible job. They were off by the little bit that matters, but both were very close elections. Those making predictions did terribly, especially when they attached odds of 99 percent. The prediction markets were totally wrong, which is why you could make a lot of money betting on the election. Given the social mood and the tight polls, betting against the crowd looked like a really good bet.

With Le Pen, she would have needed more than 30 percent in the first round. She needs a higher core of support because everyone else unites against her. Also, a higher result would have revealed the "shy" Le Pen voter, someone who lies to the pollster about their intentions. Instead, Le Pen underperformed the first round polls. The second round polls are not close and they have been consistently showing a large lead for Macron.

Social mood is in her favor, but victory will not come in 2017.

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