2016-10-14

More on China's Plans to Move 100 Million Peasants

Will rural residents give up farm life and their cheap and spacious homes for unemployment/low wage work, and small and expensive apartments in crappy fourth-tier cities?

Additionally, if Chinese growth picks up, emerging market growth picks up, and food prices will start a bull market. Making farm life even more lucrative...

Caixin: Government to Move 100 Million Farmers to Cities by 2020 in Major Urbanization Push
The State Council said it plans to move at least 13 million people registered as farmers out of rural areas permanently each year from 2016 to 2020, with at least 100 million people affected after the five years. Small plots of land left behind by city-bound villagers could be turned into larger farms that use modern methods to make the agricultural sector more competitive, policymakers said.

Authorities had hoped the government-led migration could also help reduce the large stockpile of unsold homes, particularly in smaller cities, built during a property boom in recent years.

But CEBM Group, a market research agency affiliated with Caixin Insight Group, said the move will not help reduce the housing glut in smaller cities if rural workers continue to receive lower wages.

"The main problem is that most rural workers can't afford a home in cities, and commercial banks do their most not to offer home loans to them," CEBM Group said in a statement.

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