2018-08-14

Mortgage Rates Still Rising, Loan Growth Slowing

Caijing: 房贷利率本轮上涨或接近尾声 居民购房杠杆率连续五个季度下降
In addition, the data showed that the average interest rate of the second home loan in July was 6.03%, up 0.3% from the previous month, and the overall increase was down. Among the key banks that have been monitored by 360, only 21 banks are charging 10% above benchmark for second home loans, down 1 from the previous month; 28 banks and 243 banks are charging 15% and 20% above benchmark, respectively, down 7 and 16 respectively; banks with mortgages higher than 20% above benchmark reached 213, an increase of 22 from last month.

At the same time, 4.13% of banks have stopped lending. For example, among the 30 banks monitored in Beijing, one bank has stopped lending; among the 26 banks monitored in Shenzhen, 7 have stopped lending.

Li, the analyst of 360 Data Research Institute, said that the central bank’s release of water has not cooled down the mortgage interest rate as expected by the industry. The mortgage interest rate is still rising. It is expected that there will be no large-scale interest rate cuts in the country in the short term. .

"But the growth rate of mortgage interest rate may slow down." Li said that from July 2017 to July 2018, the interest rate of first home loan and second home loan increased by 2.47% from the previous month, and increased by 1.27% to 0.45. %nearby. According to this trend, in the next two to three months, the ring value will approach 0, and the mortgage interest rate will remain slightly up to stable.
The leverage ratio of residents buying houses continues to decelerate

Under the background of the increase in mortgage interest rates and the tightening of real estate policies, residents' leverage ratio has continued to decline. Yiju Real Estate Research Institute released the "Research on the Leverage of Household Residents in the Second Quarter of 2018" report. In the first quarter of 2017, the personal housing loan balance increased by 35.5% year-on-year, and this growth fell to 18.6% in the second quarter of 2018. At the same time, the leverage ratio of domestic residents' home purchases fell back to 31.9%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and down 8.6 percentage points year-on-year. It has narrowed for five consecutive quarters.

Shen Yi, a researcher at the Yiju Research Institute, said that since the third quarter of 2015, the leverage of residents' home purchases has risen rapidly, reaching the highest level of 44.1% since 2010 in the fourth quarter of 2016. In the first quarter of 2017, the indicator fell slightly to 43.8%, and continued to decline for the next five quarters.

However, Shen Wei also pointed out that although the growth rate of personal mortgage balance has slowed down, overall, there is still room for personal de-leverage. In the second quarter of 2018, the balance of personal housing loans increased by 980 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year. However, from the absolute value of the new mortgage balance, it is still at a historical high.

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