2018-08-17

Trump Looking for Pre-Election Deal or Knockout Punch

Given how events have played out to this point, I'm starting to lean away from expecting a pre-election deal and towards escalation with China. Putting odds on that is difficult because negotiating before the election makes sense either way. If Trump wants some type of pre-election deal to boost his poll numbers and stock prices, he has to do it soon. He doesn't have to give up everything on trade, maybe it's only a small deal, a "first step," but it has to happen soon because voters start early voting by late September and early October. It's also the best time to hit China hard because they likely believe he wants a pre-election deal. They might think they can take advantage of the U.S. election cycle. It is the perfect time to show how much cost he's willing to bear for the deal he wants.

The Guardian: China to send delegation for US talks to avert trade war
A Chinese trade delegation will visit the US this month to kick off a new round of talks, the first since negotiations broke down two months ago.

China’s ministry of commerce said the US had invited a delegation, led by vice-commerce minister Wang Shouwen, to meet a group led by US Treasury undersecretary, David Malpass.

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