2021-01-11

China 2021: Inflation Up and Fertility Down

Updated below with English articles. Last week the Xibei CEO made waves online by saying people should work 15 hours a day, 7 days a week.

Now a former executive zinged the company by saying their recent price increase means anyone earning less than 5,000 yuan per month, or 95 percent of netizens, cannot afford to eat there.

Sina: 月收入5000以下不该吃西贝?馒头、花卷都是19元一个

In response to the hotly discussed price increase in Xibei, Yu Xin said that the price of restaurant dishes changes with the price of raw materials. Because Xibei is very strict in the selection of dishes, the restaurant does incur high costs in terms of selection, transportation, and materials.  

 "The price issue is actually a common topic. There may be some stories about the ingredients behind it, and maybe we still lack the consumer's knowledge (of Xibei)." Yu Xin said.   

Will Xibei increase prices in the short term? Yu Xin responded that the restaurant does not currently have a new price increase plan, but if the price changes, it must be strictly approved at the headquarters.

iFeng: 西贝一个馒头21元,生菜49元,月薪5千以下真吃不起!
Some netizens said that a plate of Liangpi used to be more than 30 yuan, but now the price has risen to 49 yuan.

Judging from the description of the above-mentioned dishes, the raw materials are not too "tall".

For example, for 46 yuan lettuce, the raw material is lettuce; the main ingredients of cold skin are gluten, cucumber shreds, diced celery, and purple cabbage; the main ingredients of large flower rolls are flour; and the main ingredients of chopped noodle buns are flour, water and milk.

In order to verify whether these Xibei dishes are worth such a high price, Sanyan Finance specially ordered a lettuce, a steamed bun, and a large flower roll.

This may be the most expensive takeaway that Sanyan Finance has ever eaten. Even if the platform offers a discount of 20 yuan, buying a dish, a steamed bun and a flower roll at a price of nearly 90 yuan is really distressing. The "hand-made choking buns", which had been cut into slices in advance when they were delivered. The serving size of a steamed bun is really big, and the length of the sliced state even exceeds that of a mobile phone.
Next is the "Xibei Big Flower Roll". This one is really big. Using the iPhone 11 Pro Max as a reference, the phone is 16 cm long and the length of the flower roll is close to the length of the phone.
This 46 yuan "scallion romaine lettuce", one serving of two, is not too large; the color is indeed full, but even so, the 46 yuan still feels a loss;
Comparing the choking noodle steamed buns with the small milk fragrant steamed buns sold in ordinary restaurants for a few bucks, one choking steamed bun is equivalent to four small steamed buns. But in terms of taste, although Xibei choking noodle steamed buns are filled with a milky scent, which is different from ordinary steamed buns, they do not have a special feeling besides being more chewy.

One point is that the amount of chopped noodle steamed buns and large flower rolls is indeed larger. Especially choking noodles steamed buns, which are almost equivalent to four small steamed buns and 2 ordinary steamed buns, and Xibei choking noodles steamed buns are indeed more porcelain.

But to be honest, spending 20 to 30 yuan to buy such a steamed bun and hantou, compared to a few bucks or even a few cents in other restaurants and snack bars, is still too cost-effective.

Especially in terms of taste, the choking steamed buns are not much different from ordinary steamed buns.

On to fertility: 总和生育率已跌破警戒线!如果“放开三胎”,你愿意生吗?
At present, the population situation is getting worse and the willingness of Chinese people to have children continues to weaken. Even the Minister of Civil Affairs wrote an article to remind:

"At present, due to many influences, my country's population of the right age has low willingness to give birth, and the total fertility rate has fallen below the warning line, and population development has entered a critical turning period.

In this context, the recent proposal of "letting go of three children" has been frequently mentioned, which has also set off wave after wave of discussions on the Internet. However, can letting go of three births really "promotes birth"? I’m afraid it’s not necessarily true—it’s important to know that this young people’s dislike of having babies is definitely not just a reason for fertility.

In today's society, whether or not to have a baby has long been a rational choice for the majority of young people. It is neither based on enthusiasm, nor is it as simple as "multiple pairs of chopsticks and multiple bowls" in the past.

To sum up, there are three main reasons why young people do not love having babies:

The three reasons are no surprise to readers here: economic pressure, culture shift away from big families and female independence. The latter is interesting because the CCP recently championed its liberation of women in Xinjiang using the same techniques it considers a problem for overall fertility:
Third, modern women have awakened their independent consciousness.

Nowadays, the proportion of professional women and intellectual women in our country is expanding. They admire to be economically independent, independent in life, and have a certain status and dignity in society. They like to design and plan by themselves to seek their ideal life instead of doing it all their lives. The traditional housewife who is dependent on her husband financially and whose main business is childbirth and housekeeping. At this time, childbirth has become an obstacle and burden. More and more modern women choose to have fewer or no children. Otherwise, once they take maternity leave or are forced to invest a lot of energy in caring for children, they may affect themselves. Promotion, salary increase and career development.

In the final analysis, the problem of fertility is by no means a problem of fertility. It is far from enough to "give birth" by letting go of three children.

The best idea they have is a "three child" policy encouraging people to have more children. Of course it won't work because nothing works in the face of the above pressures. There are two successful policies. One is expanded aid for families, but this tends to stop the decline in fertility rather than reverse it. For higher fertility, the best prescription is higher religiousity, deurbanization or anti-feminism, the opposite of the CCP's agenda. Moreover, their economic policy drives inflation higher and fertility lower. The trap will not be escaped. Fertility will converge with that of Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Update: I came across this article in English making all the same points: Born and raised

Also: Proactive response to going gray

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