A Sign of the Top Hat

Twetch (link to sign up) did something interesting today. The sold a hat tied to a non-fungible token (NFT). NFTs are basically ownership rights fo teh digital world. They create scarcity in an otherwise non-scare environment. There's a lot that can be done with them. However, I'm not going to go into NFTs here. My point today is they sold 100 hats for quite a tidy sum, with the hat numbered #1 sold for $420 worth of BSV. The hats and associated token do have value because they can be redeemed for free Twetches (it costs about 2 cents to post a text only Twetch).

More broadly, we are in the binary moment where the future braches into extermely rapid inflation or we are at the top of a massive bubble. We were here in March 2000 with tech stocks, June 2008 with oil and September 2011 with gold.

The analogy I keep coming back to, because it is the perfect way to think about cryptocurrency, is that Amazon lost more than 90 percent of its value in the early 2000s bear maket despite becoming more successful than even its most delusional bulls could even imagine in the year 2000. Cryptocurrencies are doing amazing things, there are here to stay, and you'll defeintely want to be involved, but I can't shake the feeling that if you set aside some cash to invest, you'll be able to increase your exposure by 10x simply by waiting. Maybe this time is different, or maybe it's history rhyming one more time.