USDJPY Monster Reversal Pattern Still Extant

Most technical analysts I've seen are looking for the right-triangle pattern to complete with USDJPY tumbling below 100 on its way to potentially new lows. For the biggest dollar bulls out there, this is also a potential 20+ year inverted head and shoulders in the making, heralding a major reversal in the yen. Intuitively, it makes sense when you consider Japan did QE first and to a far more extreme degree. If any developed nation's currency deserves to collapse (based on economic fundamentals) it is the yen. The target would be 175 based on the pattern. A drop of that magnitude would almost certianly pull export competitor currencies such as the euro, yuan and won lower. Or more likely, this move would accompany a global depression or some event far greater than coronavirus. No central bank could bail out Japan. It's unlikely nations would cooperate on a bailout anyway given U.S.-China tensions.

The sloping resistance line is half a percent away. It was briefly pierced in February and March 2020 but didn't hold. Any modest U.S. dollar rally that includes the yen could break resistance again, it could come as soon as Monday if volatility from the end of last week carried over. While many charts have severely damaged the dollar bullish view and the deflation risk, this is one that is close to screaming "hold your horses" to the reflation trades.