Platinum $10,000

Platinum is the cheapest of the precious metals if it can return to its former ratio with gold. If gold hits $5,000 and platinum hits its old peak ratio, it will reach $10,000 per ounce. If you look at fundamentals, you'd pick palladium over platinum though: Palladium set to rally for years on shortages, top miner says

Prices of palladium and rhodium are poised to rally for years as a supply squeeze tightens for the metals that are key to curbing vehicle emissions, said the head of the world’s third-largest producer of platinum group metals

Platinum prices, for which South Africa is the world’s top supplier, are likely to remain subdued in the medium term until automakers switch from using more palladium in catalytic converters, he said.

The chart and some cycle events argue for platinum. First the chart.

The metals are correlated, but platinum and palldium have different phases of leadership. Palladium peaks in 2001, platinum in 2007, palladium in 2020 (with a brief overshoot in 2022). Palladium peaks in 2001 after oil falls below $10, the Nasdaq tech bubble pops, Russia defaults on its debt, conincident with a top in the U.S. dollar index. What has happened in the past two years? Oil fell below $10 per barrel, the Nasdaq tech bubble is popping, Russia defaults on its debt, the U.S. dollar index is not yet making, but is inevitably heading for an important top.

The platinum analog playing out now would be the 2001 low before the bull market entered its manic phase. Platinum bottomed two years earlier, rallied and then consoliated those gains. A proportional conslidation would take platinum down into to the $800 to $850 area.

The fundamental bullish case for platinum will emerge after it has already run. Watch the chart.