Bear Market Rally Failure Signals

ARKK has to stop leading. It took out its Monday high today, negating an immediate reversal in the market rally. It has its own resistance line coming up though, and it is still not at a relative new high vs SPY or QQQ.

Animal spirits: BTC and ETH have a lot of room to run.

Tech drove the market down. It drove the rally up. If things "go back to normal" for the post-2008 bull market, tech will continue leading higher. The ratio chart of QQQ to SPY is at the perfect level for a reversal.

On the prior post, I mentioned long Meta as a possible play for a market that goes up. Look at Meta from the bearish side: if this market is going down, Meta is going to implode because it barely bounced in a 20-percent-plus rally in the tech sector. It's going to at least the $115 horizontal and maybe lower. I don't think Meta is particularly important one way or another as a signal yet. It could get squeezed higher for no reason even as the market stalls. It has to break to a new low to really give a clean bear signal, but it will probably be a superfluous signal at that point.

Another is Apple, that should not get materially higher than its gap around $173 and change.

Finally, there are charts such as XLU. Utilities got back to their high in May 2021 so rise to that area wouldn't negate a bear market, but it would be anomalous for a sector to achieve a new all-time high breakout within a primary bear market.

XLU was less than 1 percent off its all-time high in May 2021: