Black Swan Bear

My sense of the market right here is that there's still a great deal of bullish energy. The bears will keep getting squeezed. At the same time, I think the market is wholly ignoring risks. There is an SPX gap at 4137. It wouldn't take much to test that gap.

The currency markets strike me as a paradox right here. If the euro breaks lower and the yen goes with it, then fast forward to the yuan "plunging." In quotes because investors will panic if the yuan becomes as volatile as the euro or yen.

If the dollar weakens, oil could surge along with commodities, lifting CPI and PPI readings and then what's the Fed to do? The dollar has benefited from Europe's stupidity in following Washington's orders this year, along with Europe's idiotic embrace of green idiocy finally bearing fruit. Plus the BoJs QE forever. This has made the Fed's job much easier. Should the dollar weaken and make inflation far more entrenched, the terminal range for this rate hike cycle rises substantially. I see no sign yet of the best case for bulls, peace in Ukraine and reopening the energy trade.