ZB Giving Me Headaches

I don't think the direction of ZB matters for stocks in the longer-term bear market. Higher rates will kill sectors such as housing and eventually trigger a major recession that probably sends bonds soaring for a time. It matters for how the bear unfolds in the short-term though. It also will help determine the worst performers aka the stuff we want to be shorting. It looks like it is taking on a bearish shape, but that isn't decisive yet.

The Nasdaq is leading the way lower as ZB declines.

Crude oil top is complete. USO is hanging around long-term support, while CL sits below a similar line after failing at resistance. Crude should have a breakdown soon and because I'm expecting stocks will decline here, I'm trading it via XLE. If crude doesn't break down, that could be bad news for ZB and NQ, while a drop might be bullish for a time until the market starts worrying about deflation.