Another Data Point for QT Thesis

The S&P 500 Index fell 0.69 percent today. The QT thesis predicted a down day given $28.5 billion in Fed-held Treasuries matured today and a substantial chunk was likely rolled off the balance sheet (we won't know how much until next week). The stock market has been tracking the Federal Reserve's balance sheet for all periods since December 2008 except from November 2016 to the January 2018 top.

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