2015-07-19

Shenzhen Leads Again in June with 7.1% Increase in New Home Prices; Prices Up 0.2% Nationally Due to First-Tier

According to the latest NBS data, new home prices increased 0.16% in June. Half of the gain was due to Shenzhen, which saw prices rise 7.1% in June. That comes on top of a 6.6% rise in May. Take Shenzhen out of the calculations and home prices are basically flat over May and June, still an improvement. Bifurcation is still clear in the data: the four first tier cities top the list of gainers. They are responsible for all the price gains in the 70-city average.

The next month is the big month for data. The stock market effect is showing up in Shenzhen prices, but the crash didn't really impact until late in June and into July. Last week, I posted Stock Market Crash Causing Buyers To Back Out of Home Purchases, Home Owners Trying to Raise Cash, No Buyers, a story about home buyers cancelling their purchases following the market crash. With sales volumes picking up, the direction in home prices is up. If the market is healthy, Shenzhen prices should fall in line with the other first-tier cities.

Year over year, prices are down 5.4%.

Since 2010, average prices are up 7.8%.

March 2014: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
October: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
November: 67 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 0 were up.
December: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 1 was up.
January 2015: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 2 were up.
February: 66 cities saw declines in price mom, 2 cities were flat, 2 were up.
March: 49 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 12 were up.
April: 47 cities saw declines in price mom, 5 cities were flat, 18 were up.
May: 41 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 20 were up.
June: 34 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 27 were up.

Existing home prices increased 0.3% in June. Prices are down 4.2% yoy. Since 2010, existing homes have risen an average of 2.7%. Shenzhen existing home prices increased 6.8%, Beijing increased 2.3%, Guangzhou increased 1.8%, Shanghai 1.2%.

70 city new home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices increased 0.15% mom; 90-144 sqm prices increased 0.20%; above 144 sqm prices climbed 0.14%.

70 city existing home price changes by market segment: below 90 sqm prices increased 0.35% mom; 90-144 sqm prices climbed 0.29%; above 144 sqm prices were up 0.31%.

Source: 2015年6月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况

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